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Japan vs China, Taiwan Province of China: population pyramids in 2038

2038Swap

JapanChina, Taiwan Province of China

1%0.75%0.5%0.25%0%0.25%0.5%0.75%1%0102030405060708090100MaleFemale

Each bar is the share of the total population at that single year of age (men left, women right), so countries of different sizes can be compared.

Japan and China, Taiwan Province of China compared

In 2038, Japan has a population of 113.8 million and China, Taiwan Province of China 21.6 million; Japan is about 5.3 times the size of China, Taiwan Province of China.

The share aged 65 and over is 33.9% in Japan and 30.0% in China, Taiwan Province of China, 3.9 points higher in Japan. The median age is 53.8 years in Japan and 52.9 years in China, Taiwan Province of China.

The total fertility rate is 1.31 in Japan and 0.97 in China, Taiwan Province of China, both below the replacement level of about 2.1. Life expectancy at birth is 86.8 years in Japan and 83.2 years in China, Taiwan Province of China.

By 2050, the population of Japan is projected to shrink by 7.7% and that of China, Taiwan Province of China to shrink by 9.8% compared with 2038.

Figures from 2024 are UN medium-variant projections.

Key figures (2038)

JapanChina, Taiwan Province of China
Population113.8 million21.6 million
Aged 0–1410.2%8.1%
Aged 15–6455.9%61.9%
Aged 65+33.9%30.0%
Median age53.8 yrs52.9 yrs
Old-age dependency60.648.4
Total fertility rate1.310.97
Life expectancy86.8 yrs83.2 yrs
Population growth-0.65%-0.68%
Net migration (per year)+121,736+6,358
GDP$4.44T (2025)—
GDP per person$36K (2025)—
Unemployment2.5% (2025)—

Economic figures are the latest year published for each country.

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