Countries whose population will shrink by 2050
Countries and areas whose total population is projected to be smaller in 2050 than today, largest decline first. Long spells of low fertility show up here, led by East Asia and Eastern Europe. 74 countries and areas, based on 2026 figures.
| # | Country / area | Change to 2050 | Then → now |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marshall Islands | -29.2% | 35,650 → 25,244 |
| 2 | Cook Islands | -28.2% | 13,035 → 9,365 |
| 3 | Saint Martin (French part) | -23.0% | 24,385 → 18,775 |
| 4 | Saint Helena | -22.9% | 5,177 → 3,991 |
| 5 | Saint Pierre and Miquelon | -22.7% | 5,545 → 4,287 |
| 6 | Puerto Rico | -22.2% | 323万 → 251万 |
| 7 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | -21.1% | 313万 → 247万 |
| 8 | Republic of Moldova | -20.6% | 298万 → 236万 |
| 9 | Lithuania | -19.2% | 281万 → 227万 |
| 10 | Ukraine | -19.0% | 3,967万 → 3,212万 |
| 11 | Bulgaria | -18.9% | 669万 → 542万 |
| 12 | Albania | -18.5% | 276万 → 225万 |
| 13 | American Samoa | -17.6% | 45,668 → 37,622 |
| 14 | Latvia | -17.5% | 184万 → 152万 |
| 15 | China, Hong Kong SAR | -17.3% | 739万 → 610万 |
| 16 | Serbia | -16.7% | 666万 → 555万 |
| 17 | Martinique | -16.6% | 338,806 → 282,528 |
| 18 | Belarus | -16.5% | 897万 → 748万 |
| 19 | North Macedonia | -16.0% | 181万 → 152万 |
| 20 | China, Taiwan Province of China | -15.4% | 2,305万 → 1,951万 |
| 21 | Croatia | -15.4% | 383万 → 325万 |
| 22 | Armenia | -14.9% | 294万 → 250万 |
| 23 | United States Virgin Islands | -14.8% | 83,758 → 71,360 |
| 24 | Montenegro | -14.8% | 627,838 → 535,117 |
| 25 | Montserrat | -14.7% | 4,346 → 3,705 |
| 26 | Romania | -14.7% | 1,885万 → 1,608万 |
| 27 | Japan | -14.4% | 1億2,265万 → 1億504万 |
| 28 | Cuba | -13.7% | 1,091万 → 941万 |
| 29 | Poland | -13.2% | 3,791万 → 3,291万 |
| 30 | Jamaica | -13.0% | 284万 → 247万 |
| 31 | Guadeloupe | -12.5% | 372,706 → 326,168 |
| 32 | Republic of Korea | -12.3% | 5,162万 → 4,528万 |
| 33 | Mauritius | -12.2% | 127万 → 111万 |
| 34 | Italy | -11.8% | 5,902万 → 5,203万 |
| 35 | Estonia | -11.8% | 133万 → 118万 |
| 36 | Palau | -11.7% | 17,641 → 15,573 |
| 37 | Bermuda | -11.5% | 64,489 → 57,093 |
| 38 | Greece | -11.0% | 991万 → 882万 |
| 39 | China | -10.6% | 14億1,441万 → 12億6,510万 |
| 40 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | -10.5% | 99,577 → 89,156 |
| 41 | Greenland | -10.2% | 55,693 → 50,025 |
| 42 | Slovakia | -9.3% | 546万 → 495万 |
| 43 | Hungary | -9.0% | 960万 → 874万 |
| 44 | Wallis and Futuna Islands | -8.8% | 11,152 → 10,167 |
| 45 | Falkland Islands (Malvinas) | -8.2% | 3,467 → 3,184 |
| 46 | Aruba | -7.3% | 108,173 → 100,279 |
| 47 | Isle of Man | -7.2% | 84,034 → 78,000 |
| 48 | Trinidad and Tobago | -7.2% | 151万 → 140万 |
| 49 | China, Macao SAR | -7.2% | 722,288 → 670,500 |
| 50 | Thailand | -7.1% | 7,158万 → 6,650万 |
| 51 | Czechia | -6.7% | 1,054万 → 984万 |
| 52 | Germany | -6.4% | 8,372万 → 7,837万 |
| 53 | Barbados | -6.3% | 282,679 → 264,845 |
| 54 | Curaçao | -6.3% | 185,460 → 173,826 |
| 55 | Slovenia | -6.3% | 212万 → 198万 |
| 56 | Portugal | -6.0% | 1,040万 → 978万 |
| 57 | Spain | -6.0% | 4,786万 → 4,499万 |
| 58 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | -5.5% | 46,958 → 44,371 |
| 59 | Russian Federation | -5.1% | 1億4,354万 → 1億3,618万 |
| 60 | Finland | -4.8% | 562万 → 535万 |
| 61 | Saint Lucia | -4.3% | 180,332 → 172,536 |
| 62 | Austria | -4.1% | 911万 → 873万 |
| 63 | Uruguay | -3.7% | 338万 → 326万 |
| 64 | Dominica | -3.7% | 65,681 → 63,252 |
| 65 | Georgia | -3.6% | 381万 → 367万 |
| 66 | Monaco | -3.6% | 37,866 → 36,510 |
| 67 | Grenada | -3.4% | 117,314 → 113,379 |
| 68 | Dem. People's Republic of Korea | -2.9% | 2,660万 → 2,583万 |
| 69 | Guernsey | -2.7% | 64,526 → 62,758 |
| 70 | Malta | -2.3% | 547,784 → 535,315 |
| 71 | Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) | -1.4% | 167万 → 165万 |
| 72 | Anguilla | -1.3% | 14,782 → 14,588 |
| 73 | Andorra | -1.2% | 83,330 → 82,290 |
| 74 | Northern Mariana Islands | -1.0% | 43,194 → 42,783 |
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2024 (medium variant).